We are getting very close to another blow out.
Hungary had its second straight Bond auction failure. Hungary could not sell the amount it had tried to, even though it was paying a higher rate than the last time the market said no. This is NOT good.
Hungary is not part of the EU so it is not in line for the EU bail out. But it can devalue, default or re-schedule. So that's all right then.
Er actually not all right at all. If Hungary does either then the dam breaks in Europe.
Austria is owed about €38 billion by Hungary. If Hungary defaults two big Austrian banks will close their doors and sink into a pit which will open beneath them. If it were just Hungary they were exposed to it might not be so bad. But Austria's other big exposure to foreign debt is GREECE. Greece whose banks are done for.
And it doesn't stop there. If Hungary decides to Devalue or Default her other main creditor's banks will also be pole-axed. Take a bow Italy, weighing in an €25 Billion owed! Don't worry folks Berlussconi is in the house!
Germany's banks will also stand to lose a large chunk of the €32 billion they lent to Hungary.
So Hungary either has to come to the ECB tit by some means or other, or the ECB is looking at trying to rescue Italy and Austria . And of course, if either were to be pulled over the edge by Hungary then Spain and Portugal would be last seen scrabling for a final hand hold before saying - 'Run, You fools!'
This may not be the one. But it is clear that it will all go sooner rather than later and we can see how it will drag one nation after another to disaster.
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